According to the Associated Press, a recent study utilizing Artificial Intelligence (AI) indicates that the world may surpass the previously established temperature limits within the next decade and may reach unprecedented warming levels by the middle of this century, despite significant efforts to reduce pollution.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on January 30, highlighted the question of whether the world can limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This goal was outlined in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change. Scientists noted that the world has already warmed by approximately 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial period, or the mid-19th century.
Climate scientists employing AI technology in their research on global climate have also reported that the Earth is likely to exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold between 2033 and 2035. This result aligns with previous conventional predictive methods, albeit with slightly higher accuracy.
The world has warmed by 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial period or the mid-19th century. (Image source: Getty Images)
“There will come a time when we realize that the goal of limiting temperature rise to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius no longer holds meaning, and that is the truth. This paper may mark the beginning of the end for the 1.5-degree Celsius limit”, stated Kim Cobb, Director of the Institute at Brown University, who was not involved in the study.
Noah Diffenbaugh, a co-author of the study from Stanford University, also noted that the world is approaching the 1.5-degree Celsius target under any plausible emission reduction scenario. Therefore, efforts to prevent exceeding this threshold will depend on whether countries can achieve their carbon neutrality goals by mid-century. The study, based on AI, indicates that it is unlikely to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, even with significant emission reductions.
“AI-based research differs from conventional computer modeling approaches that rely on past observations”, said researcher Diffenbaugh.
In a high pollution scenario assessment, AI predicts that the world will reach a 2-degree Celsius temperature increase by around 2050. Hence, humanity’s efforts to limit environmental pollution will have a positive impact in delaying this until 2054.
The Role of AI in Climate Change Predictions
In a report from 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that the world is likely to see temperatures exceed 2 degrees Celsius by 2090. Climate scientist Natalie Mahowald from Cornell University, who was not involved in the study but is an IPCC member, affirmed that this research is significant and aligns with what scientists already know, though it appears more pessimistic.
Typically, climate scientists use a variety of computer modeling tools to forecast weather. Diffenbaugh believes that what AI is doing now marks a significant milestone for climate systems.
“We are using this tool to gather information and integrate it in ways that humans have not been able to do, for better or worse”, emphasized Diffenbaugh.
Every year, climate negotiators from various countries at the United Nations summit declare their commitment to keeping the temperature threshold below 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, the latest research presents a stark contrast to previous forecasts regarding the limit on temperature rise.
Expert Zeke Hauscha from technology company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, who was not involved in the study, also agreed that it is time to reconsider the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. Some scenarios suggest temperatures will exceed permissible levels but then decrease.
Moreover, other scientists not involved in the study, such as Michael Mann from Pennsylvania State University and Bill Hare and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner from the Climate Analytics Institute, argue that the goal of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius still holds value. With a rapid decarbonization scenario, the world could remain below the allowable threshold. According to Bill Hare, if the world can cut carbon emissions by half by 2030, warming could be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius and then reduced below permissible levels.
“If the world cannot keep the average global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the immediate challenge is to limit global warming as much as possible”, emphasized expert Michael Mann.
