The planet that humanity is most hopeful to set foot on may be an incredibly “unlucky” place.
According to Live Science, scientists have discovered over 33,000 objects that could approach Earth and pose a danger at some point in the future – prompting space agencies to accelerate their planetary defense missions.
However, our neighbor named Mars may be “unluckier” by up to 2.6 times.
A relatively young impact crater captured by NASA’s orbiter – (Photo: NASA/JPL-Caltech)
According to a recent international study, the probability of asteroids and other small meteoroids colliding with Mars is twice that of our planet.
Co-author of the study, Yufan Fane Zhou from Nanjing University (China), explains that this is due to Mars being right next to a large asteroid belt, which separates this world from the gas giant Jupiter.
They named the objects that could approach the red planet and pose a danger as “CAPHA.”
To determine the number of CAPHA objects for Mars, the research team used computer models to simulate the movements of all 8 planets in the Solar System and about 11,000 randomly selected asteroids over more than 100 million years.
Then, by examining the distances of each asteroid from 6 known gaps – areas within the main belt where asteroids are likely to slip out, the research team classified about 10,000 asteroids as “near gaps.”
During the simulation, researchers caused the nearby asteroids to drift towards or away from our sun.
This drifting occurs due to the Yarkovsky effect, a force generated when the sunlit surface of asteroids re-emits the energy they receive, acting like mini thrusters.
The simulation of this drift is crucial because, over millennia, it causes asteroids near the gaps to curve into these voids.
Once there, periodic gravitational forces from Jupiter or Saturn bend the paths of these asteroids, increasing their risk of colliding with planets in the inner solar system – home to the four terrestrial planets: Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars.
Simulations also reveal that approximately 52 large asteroids dangerously approach Mars each year – about 2.6 times the roughly 20 asteroids that approach Earth annually.
NASA missions may have witnessed some impacts of this nature. For example, the collision on December 24, 2021, caused a 4.0 magnitude earthquake detected by the Mars InSight lander.
Although this is bad news for the ambitious missions to conquer or even establish a base on Mars that NASA and many other space agencies hope for, it also helps to enhance the understanding of the formation of the inner solar system.
Additionally, it serves as a warning that space agencies should consider measures to protect spacecraft – especially crewed vessels in the future – when approaching worlds that are susceptible to such unexpected attacks.
