Forecast for Early Afternoon Today (September 17): The tropical depression is expected to pass through Luzon Island in the Philippines and enter the South China Sea, moving rapidly and intensifying into a typhoon, potentially heading towards the central provinces of Vietnam.
As of 1 AM today (September 17), the center of the tropical depression is located inland on the eastern side of Luzon Island in the Philippines, with maximum wind speeds near the center reaching level 7 (50-61 km/h), with gusts up to level 9. In the last few hours, the tropical depression has primarily moved westward at a speed of approximately 15 km/h.
It is forecasted that during today and tonight, the tropical depression will cross Luzon Island into the South China Sea, moving mainly in a west-southwest direction at a rapid speed of about 25 km/h and will strengthen into a typhoon, becoming Typhoon Number 4 in the South China Sea this year.
By 1 AM on September 18, the center of the typhoon will be located in the northern South China Sea, approximately 420 km east of the Paracel Islands.
Latest assessment of the path and impact area of the tropical depression.
In the following 24 hours (from 1 AM on September 18), the typhoon will continue to move rapidly in a west-southwest direction towards the Paracel Islands of Vietnam and will continue to intensify. By 1 AM on September 19, the center of the typhoon will be over the Paracel Islands, with maximum wind speeds near the center reaching level 9, with gusts up to level 10.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the most likely scenario currently is that after reaching the Paracel Islands, the typhoon will change direction and move northwest towards the northern central region of Vietnam. The direct impact is expected around September 21-22.
Two scenarios with lower probabilities involve the storm center shifting more to the north, which could expand the affected area to the northern region. Another scenario could see the typhoon shifting further south, with the direct impact area centered on the central region of Vietnam.
Due to the influence of the tropical depression, which will strengthen into Typhoon Number 4, the eastern waters of the northern South China Sea will experience strong winds of levels 6-7, with areas near the typhoon center reaching level 8 (62-74 km/h) and gusts up to level 10 (89-102 km/h), causing rough seas.
The eastern waters of the northern South China Sea will see wave heights of 2-4 meters, increasing to 3-5 meters from the afternoon of September 17. All vessels operating in the aforementioned dangerous areas are likely to be affected by strong winds and high waves.
According to expert assessments, the trajectory and intensity of Typhoon Number 4 will be very complex and unpredictable due to the influence of various factors such as subtropical high pressure and cold air, requiring continuous updates on the latest forecasts.
