This year’s cold spells are predicted to arrive late, occur for a short time, and the average temperatures during the winter months are generally higher than the long-term average.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has reported that the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions are influenced by El Niño. It is forecasted that over the next three months, El Niño will continue with a probability of about 90-95%.
Previous studies have shown that under El Niño conditions, most regions across the country tend to have higher average temperatures than normal.
In addition to the increasing heat, the number of cold air outbreaks affecting our country during El Niño years is generally lower than normal.
Statistics indicate that the number of cold air outbreaks passing through Hanoi each month is only about 70% of the long-term average. The duration of cold air activity in Vietnam also ends earlier than usual.
Due to the influence of El Niño, this winter is expected to arrive late and be warmer than the long-term average.
Northern Vietnam may experience a warm winter.
Forecasts indicate that during the early winter period, cold air activity is likely to be weak, and cold spells may appear late, with fewer days of severe cold compared to the long-term average.
In October 2023, the average temperature nationwide is generally about 0.5-1 degree higher than the long-term average. From November to December 2023, the averages are expected to be higher by 0.5-1.5 degrees.
Looking further ahead, during the first three months of 2024, the El Niño phenomenon is expected to continue with a probability of about 85-95% and its intensity is likely to gradually decrease.
From January to March 2024, the number of days with severe cold in Northern and North Central Vietnam is expected to be less than the long-term average. Severe cold spells are also likely to be short-lived.
From January to March 2024, the average temperature across most of the country is projected to be higher than the long-term average by about 0.5-1.5 degrees.
However, experts also warn that early cold air outbreaks, while not significantly lowering temperatures, often cause heavy rain, thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, and hail, especially in the mountainous and midland provinces of Northern Vietnam.
Additionally, meteorological authorities have noted that from now until the end of 2023, the South China Sea is likely to experience about 3-5 storms or tropical depressions, with around 1-2 directly impacting our coastline. It is essential to be cautious of storms that may have complex developments in both trajectory and intensity.
