While causing fewer severe symptoms compared to the Delta variant, the Omicron variant still poses similar or even greater dangers than previous variants.
Globally, the emergence of the Omicron variant has simultaneously been both good and bad news. With the information we have about this variant, the risks it poses are continuously changing. Although Omicron does not cause a new disease, it continues to give us headaches.
The emergence of the Omicron variant has simultaneously been both good and bad news. (Illustrative image: Al Jazeera).
Is the Variant Milder?
First, the good news is that research from the Royal College of London agrees with what South African researchers reported in November: cases of the Omicron variant have a lower risk of hospitalization compared to Delta variant cases.
This study examined 325,000 positive cases of the SARS-COV-2 virus through PCR testing in the UK from December 1 to 14, including 56,000 cases of the Omicron variant and 269,000 cases of the Delta variant. The study also showed that the risk of needing hospital treatment for Omicron cases is 20-25% lower than for Delta cases.
Furthermore, the study indicated that two vaccine doses are not enough to protect us against variants, and getting a booster shot is the best and safest way to cope with both Omicron and Delta. Additionally, cases that previously had Covid-19 reduced their risk of hospitalization by half if they contracted the Omicron variant. Nevertheless, scientists remain cautious about relying on natural immunity to combat Covid-19, as variants can cause severe symptoms and deaths, as well as long Covid, making vaccination a safer option.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who led the research, stated that although these signs are good news, we still need to be cautious because the surge in Omicron cases could lead to an increase in hospitalizations over time.
Another study from South Africa also indicated that the Omicron variant results in lower hospitalization rates. Conducted by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) with over 160,000 positive cases of the SARS-CoV-2 virus from October 1 to December 6, it found that individuals infected with the Omicron variant are up to 80% less likely to require hospitalization compared to those infected with other variants. However, the authors noted that it is difficult to confirm this precisely, as the Omicron variant may only cause mild symptoms or because South Africans may have a certain level of immunity from previous infections or vaccinations.
A study from Edinburgh also showed that individuals infected with the Omicron variant have a 65% lower risk of hospitalization compared to those infected with the Delta variant.
These results may be good news, but it might not be the right time for us to “rest on our laurels.”
The Unexpected Dangers of Omicron
What makes the emergence of Omicron bad news for humanity is the rapid increase in cases of this variant worldwide, much faster than we initially thought. Both the US and the UK have recorded record daily cases, with New York and London being the hardest-hit cities.
Even if Omicron cases are 40-50% less severe and require hospitalization, if the number of cases triples, this could result in more hospitalizations and deaths than those from Delta variant infections.
However, the issue is not just about hospitalization and death rates. When someone tests positive for SARS-CoV-2, they must isolate. With the highly transmissible Omicron variant, the number of positive cases will rise quickly, leading to many people unable to work. This will begin to affect frontline workers such as healthcare staff, police, firefighters, and transportation services.
When this happens, essential agencies will have to suspend operations and cancel schedules. We might be able to tolerate canceled train services. It is an inconvenience but not life-threatening. But what happens if hospital operations must be canceled due to staff shortages? Many healthcare systems worldwide had to halt certain activities in the early stages of the pandemic as healthcare workers focused on treating Covid-19 patients. We have heard of numerous cases where ambulances took hours to arrive due to workforce shortages, cancer patients had to delay treatments, and surgeries could be canceled. The Omicron variant may cause milder symptoms, but it poses a deadly threat to the healthcare system as serious as any previous variant.
Another danger is that if people continue to cling to the idea that the Omicron variant causes “milder” symptoms, many will become complacent in following preventive measures such as testing or wearing masks. This could lead to fewer people getting booster vaccinations, which in turn could increase infection rates and ultimately raise hospitalization and death rates.
Governments around the world have reacted differently to the emergence and spread of the Omicron variant. Countries like the Netherlands have implemented strict lockdown measures, while the US and UK have relaxed restrictions. However, history has shown us that the quicker we act, the better positioned we are to respond to the pandemic.
