As July comes to a close, the Atlantic Ocean is experiencing extreme heat, especially in areas where storms usually form. However, strangely enough, this year has seen almost no storms occur.
According to Ars Technica, in the tropical region between Africa and the Caribbean Sea—where most major Atlantic storms develop—the average sea surface temperature stands at 28 degrees Celsius, higher than any previous July.
High sea surface temperatures typically lead to significant storm activity. For instance, the year 2005 was notorious for severe storms like Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
The only storm, Don, formed in July 2023 in the Atlantic – (Photo: NOAA).
However, July 2023 was quite a calm month in the Atlantic. Only one named storm, Don, formed in mid-month, and it did not cause any significant consequences.
So where have the storms gone?
In the Atlantic, aside from temperature, there is another crucial factor to consider: wind shear. Wind shear can be understood as a sudden change in wind speed or direction over a short distance.
Wind shear exists at various levels in the atmosphere. The more wind shear present, the more chaotic the atmosphere becomes, which means storms struggle to develop and intensify. If wind shear is strong enough, it can literally tear the top off a storm.
In 2023, the Earth is experiencing El Niño, resulting in higher-than-normal wind shear in the Atlantic. This tends to inhibit storm formation despite the warm waters.
But what happens next?
Sea surface temperatures will likely remain high. Meanwhile, according to meteorologist Michael Lowry, some weather models indicate that wind shear may decrease by the end of August. This suggests that a dangerous hurricane season may soon be upon us.
Renowned meteorologists, including Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University and the UK Met Office, have issued special warnings that major dangerous storms could occur in the next two months.
