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A gas meter on the pipeline system in Ukraine on January 1, the day Russian Gazprom cut gas supply to its neighbor. (Photo: VTV) |
Cooking with gas is as simple as making a phone call; within minutes, a service will deliver a new gas cylinder to your home. It’s incredibly convenient. But in 42 years, we may have to dig the earth to find any gas at all. The gas conflict between Ukraine and Russia once again raises alarms about the scarcity of this vital resource.
Confucius Knew How to Use Gas
Of course, back then, there weren’t the convenient gas stoves we have today. However, records suggest that the Chinese were likely the first to harness gas seeping from the earth’s fissures. Gradually, they drilled deeper to tap gas pockets and even constructed bamboo pipelines. Coastal areas with gas knew how to use it to boil seawater to produce salt.
Today, the descendants of these ingenious Chinese have reached a population of 1.3 billion and are considered a primary driver behind the global increase in gas prices. The term “oil crisis” emerged three decades ago, marking the first time the world shuddered at the realization of how dependent modern life is on energy.
However, the causes of the conflicts over oil wells back then were political, meaning solutions were possible. “Gas crisis” is perhaps a term still too new. It only gained attention when Russia threatened to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in the middle of a frigid winter. Fortunately, both sides reached an agreement, whereas many American families this year have begun to face gas shortages, not solely due to offshore hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
Praying for “Warmer Weather”
The gas crisis in the United States is fundamentally different from the conflict between Russia and its neighbor or from the artificial price hikes by some OPEC nations. Natural gas, a resource that takes millions of years to form under specific conditions, is running low!
The American energy industry has never invested as much money and effort as it does today to extract gas both onshore and offshore – and this is just to meet current production and consumption needs, not considering future development.
As of today, the northern neighbor, Canada, rich in minerals yet sparsely populated, is still viewed as a strong support. However, even Canada is feeling the rising concern like dark clouds looming over the energy horizon: 2003 was the first year Canada consumed more gas than it discovered, and the reserves of the gas sources currently being extracted seem to have been overestimated. In other words, Canadians are running low on reserves.
This winter has already been predicted to bring significant cold to North America. Many families will struggle to heat their homes, and many companies would rather lay off workers than produce recklessly through the winter. America has a large number of religious individuals, and in their prayers, they have added the plea, “God, let the weather warm up,” as Diana Munns from the Iowa Chamber of Commerce told “US News” magazine.
The Gas Market
Since 1983, global gas consumption has increased by 75%, partly because it is perceived as a (relatively) clean energy source, producing no sulfur that causes acid rain. In an era where ecological awareness is on the rise, many coal and oil technologies have been switched to gas since the 1970s.
The gas market differs from the oil market, centered in three regions: the U.S., Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. The simple reason is that gas can only be transported economically via pipelines, and therefore, oil-producing countries in the Gulf often burn off the gas that comes with crude oil, without considering business opportunities.
Qatar, an Arab emirate ranked third in gas production after Russia and Iran, has taken a different path. In 1971, significant gas reserves were discovered off the coast of Qatar, and they have learned to turn this “useless” gas into a tremendous profit source. At the Port of Ras Laffan, the largest liquefied gas facility in the world has emerged. At a temperature of -160°C, gas shrinks to just 1/615 of its original volume and turns into a liquid, making it possible to transport it across the globe via large ships, including to the U.S. This new path taken by Qatar has created a “trend” in gas transport ships. This year, the number of specialized vessels for transporting liquefied gas will double compared to a century ago.
The Future
Unlike oil, the amount of gas consumed is still a small fraction of the total extracted. However, wary of the oil nightmare, humanity calculates how long gas will last at the current consumption rate. The predicted figure is 67 years, but this should not make us complacent, as experience shows that such calculations are often grossly inaccurate due to the dynamic nature of reality, not to mention the increasing habit of gas usage. Taking into account this dynamism, gas reserves could be depleted within the next 42 years, and oil could run out even faster.
The inevitable reality is that in the coming years, customers will increasingly pay higher prices for gas. No alternative energy source currently exists that can substitute for oil and gas, not even nuclear energy.
While the Chinese knew how to use gas 2,500 years ago, in other ancient civilizations like Greece or Persia, people still feared worshipping the “eternal” fire created by lightning from gas escaping from the earth. Today we know that flame cannot burn “eternally,” but when it extinguishes in 42 years, what will happen then – no one knows…
