Scientists Reveal Factors Behind Turbulent Regions That Caused Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Qatar Airways Incidents
Severe turbulence is believed to be the cause of a deadly incident and injuries to dozens of passengers on Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 on May 21, as well as injuries sustained on Qatar Airways flight QF17 on May 26.
Where Is Turbulence Most Likely to Occur?
Image from inside the turbulence-affected SIA aircraft – (Photo: X).
In an interview with The Guardian, Dr. Guido Carim Jr., head of the Griffith Aviation School at Griffith University (USA), stated that turbulence is most likely to occur over high mountains, oceans, equatorial regions, and when entering jet streams.
However, clear-air turbulence (CAT)—often caused by sudden changes in wind direction—can occur anywhere at any time.
This is the type of turbulence that investigators suspect affected SIA.
Dr. Carim, who is also a former pilot, believes that extremely complex factors interact to create turbulence, such as wildfires.
While radar technology for detecting turbulence is improving, pilots still cannot predict exactly when and where this phenomenon will occur.
High humidity and temperature tend to intensify turbulence. Therefore, flight paths such as from London, UK, to New York, USA, during summer months may be “bumpier” compared to the same route in December.
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner of Qatar Airways experiencing turbulence on flight QF17 from Doha to Dublin over Turkish airspace – (Photo: X).
World’s Most Turbulent Flight Routes
The turbulence forecasting scale from Turbli Sweden, which uses data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the UK’s Meteorological Office, has highlighted the top most turbulent flight routes in the world for 2023.
These include Santiago (Chile) to Santa Cruz (Bolivia); Almaty (Kazakhstan) to Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan); Lanzhou to Chengdu (China); Chubu to Sendai (Japan); Milan (Italy) to Geneva (Switzerland); and Milan to Zurich (Switzerland).
According to this report, the countries with the most turbulence-prone flights in April were French Polynesia, Fiji, Pakistan, Namibia, and Uruguay.
Meanwhile, the South Pacific is the leading region in the world for turbulence.
Data from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau shows that there were 3,047 incidents involving commercial aircraft globally in 2023, of which 236 were weather-related. From the beginning of 2024 to date, there have been 790 commercial aircraft incidents, including 52 due to weather conditions.
Is There a Connection Between the Incidents of Qatar Airways and SIA?
Meteorologist Milton Speer from the University of Technology Sydney (Australia) noted that QF17 and SQ321 were thousands of kilometers apart when they encountered severe turbulence, and there were no clear atmospheric phenomena linking the two cases.
He also spoke with pilots who have flown in both areas recently and reported that they “saw nothing unusual.”
However, there is still a correlation. The occurrence of turbulent regions has increased by 55% from 1979 to 2020 and is projected to continue rising. Climate crises are believed to be one of the contributing factors.
Experts and aviation professionals suggest that wearing seatbelts in turbulence-prone areas and even throughout the flight is a way to ensure safety.
