The record-high prices for orange juice worldwide are expected to persist due to diseases and extreme weather conditions devastating orange orchards in leading producing countries.
Orange juice prices fluctuate, decreasing during bumper harvests that lead to oversupply, and increasing when frost or storms cause crop damage.
However, the current record-high prices for orange juice worldwide may continue, as diseases and extreme weather are wreaking havoc on orange orchards in several top producing countries, according to AP.
The current orange juice crisis is primarily due to drought, heavy rains, and plant diseases in Brazil, as well as widespread storm damage in the United States. (Photo: VCG).
Supply at Rock Bottom
This year’s harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of orange juice, is expected to be the worst in 36 years due to flooding and drought, according to forecasts from Fundecitrus, an organization focused on citrus cultivation in São Paulo state.
“The concern is not just that orange juice prices are rising. The worry goes beyond just the lack of orange juice supply,” shared Oscar Simonetti, an orange farmer in Mogi Guacu, Brazil.
In the United States, Florida’s already declining orange production dropped by 62% in the 2022-2023 season after Hurricane Ian devastated a crop already struggling with pest infestations. Drought has also reduced Spain’s orange yield last year.
Scarce supply has driven prices higher. In the U.S., a 350 ml can of frozen concentrated orange juice averaged $4.27 in April, up 42% from the same time last year, according to government data.
In the United Kingdom, where the British Juice Association reported supplies are at their lowest in 50 years, fresh orange juice prices rose 25% over the past year, according to consumer research firm Nielsen.
This price increase further burdens consumers already fatigued by inflation. According to Rabobank, a Dutch bank focusing on food and agriculture, orange juice consumption has decreased by 15% to 25% in major global markets, including the U.S. and the European Union, over the past year.
Jonna Parker, head of the fresh food customer research department at Circana, a market research company, noted that consumers’ morning fruit consumption habits are shifting toward energy drinks, smoothies, and other beverages instead of orange juice.
“High prices are causing people to consider alternative options,” Parker commented.
Global orange juice consumption has declined in light of the current price increases due to competition from other beverages and public concerns about sugar content in orange juice. Rabobank indicated that if this trend continues, it may help balance supply and demand and prevent further price increases. However, they expect limited supply to keep prices high for some time.
Orange juice prices are soaring in many places worldwide. (Photo: Zuma Press).
Orange Juice Slowly Disappearing from Shelves
In some markets, orange juice is gradually disappearing from store shelves.
At the end of last year, McDonald’s in Australia removed orange juice from its menu in favor of “orange fruit drink” containing only 35% orange juice.
Meanwhile, Morinaga Milk Industry Co., based in Tokyo, plans to discontinue its Sunkist orange juice product—made from juice sourced from Brazil—by the end of June due to low orange juice supply from Brazil. In April 2023, Megmilk Snow Brand Co., based in Sapporo, Japan, ceased deliveries of its 1-liter and 450 ml packaged orange juice, which was sold under a deal with Dole. This product has yet to return.
Some companies are considering substituting oranges in their products. Coldpress, a UK juice company, introduced a tangerine juice product in February due to high conventional orange juice prices.
However, many other brands are tight-lipped about their future plans. Some major orange juice producers—including Dole, Tropicana, Florida’s Natural, Uncle Matt’s, and Coca-Cola (which produces the Simply and Minute Maid brands)—have declined to comment or did not respond to inquiries from the Associated Press.
Causes
The roots of the current supply troubles have been developing for decades. In 2005, an invasive pest known as the Asian citrus psyllid appeared in Florida, injecting bacteria into orange trees in the state. The bacteria slowly kill the trees by destroying their root systems. Currently, there is no cure for infected trees.
The consequences are alarming. In 2004, before this chronic disease—known as citrus greening—affected Florida, the state produced 200 million boxes of oranges. This year, the yield is under 20 million.
Michael Rogers, an entomologist and director of the University of Florida’s Citrus Research and Education Center, stated that no orange tree is completely resistant to citrus greening, but scientists are attempting to breed trees that can better withstand the disease.
Oranges infected with citrus greening are identifiable by their uneven surfaces. (Photo: Zuma Press/Alamy Stock).
Citrus greening appeared in Brazil around the same time as in Florida, but it progressed more slowly because Brazil has much larger orchards. Professor Rogers indicated that the pest spreads by flying from one tree to another.
However, citrus greening is still spreading. Fundecitrus estimates that 38% of Brazil’s orange trees were affected by citrus greening in 2023.
Simonetti, an orange farmer, estimates that the disease affects 20% of his yield. He noted that oranges on diseased trees do not ripen evenly and drop prematurely, impacting juice quality.
Shifting production to other locations is not an effective option either. For example, California also grows oranges, and citrus greening does not thrive in that state’s climate, but California lacks the necessary rainfall to produce sufficiently juicy oranges for juicing; Professor Rogers mentioned that California oranges are typically sold for eating.
Another issue impacting orange harvesting is extreme weather, a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly common as the world warms due to climate change.
Last year, nine heatwaves swept through Brazil, resulting in lower orange yields and poorer fruit quality. This year, the impact of El Niño has been particularly severe, with a historic drought in the Amazon and significant flooding in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.
“Daytime temperatures are very high. At night, temperatures drop. Plants cannot withstand this temperature difference,” Simonetti stated.
The 2024-2025 orange harvest in Brazil is expected to yield 232 million boxes of oranges, a 24% decrease from the previous year.
Vinícius Trombin, coordinator of crop surveys at Fundecitrus, stated: “We have never seen a harvest like this.”
To compensate for the lower-than-expected yields, some producers are considering blending oranges with tangerines for juice production, Trombin mentioned. However, he is skeptical about this plan.
He said: “Consumers want a juice made from 100% oranges.”
