Demographers are increasingly concerned about the risk of a global shortage of women. For several decades, in India and China—two of the most populous countries—the birth rate of girls has been declining. In the next 15 years, there will be 36 million Chinese men unable to find wives.
China and India together have a population of 2.4 billion, accounting for 38% of the world’s population. In China, during the 1960s, the average family had six children. However, since 1979, due to economic reasons, the country has only allowed each family to have one child. From the 1980s onwards, ultrasound technology became widespread, enabling parents to determine the sex of the fetus as early as three months into pregnancy. According to tradition, only sons can carry on the family line; without a son, there is no one to honor the ancestors.
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Indians are very afraid of having daughters (Photo: 60sfurther) |
As a result, in China, since 1989, the ratio of newborn boys to girls has been 111 to 100 (whereas a reasonable ratio is 103-106 to 100). By the year 2000, this number had risen to 117 to 100. In Hainan Province, there were as many as 132 boys born for every 100 girls. It is estimated that in the next 15 years, there will be 36 million Chinese men unable to find wives.
In India, demographic expert Christophe T. Guilmoto from the French Institute for Research and Development remarks, “without at least one son, life is a tragedy.” There is a saying in India: “Raising a daughter is like watering the garden of your neighbor.” In this country, when a daughter gets married, her parents are burdened with hefty dowries; once married, a daughter is expected to preserve her husband’s family wealth. Consequently, in India, by 1991, the birth ratio of boys to girls was already at 106 to 100. By 2001, this figure had risen to 108 to 100, and even reached 125 to 100 in some northern Indian states. In the next 15 years, approximately 30 million Indian boys will not find brides.
Other Asian countries also face gender imbalances, such as Armenia and Azerbaijan. South Korea, while traditionally patriarchal, has seen a decline in gender-selective births due to reconciliation campaigns (with a ratio of 110 males to 100 females in 2000). The rest of the world will not be able to compensate for the lack of women in Asia.
Professors Valerie Hudson from Utah State University and Andrea Den Boer from Kent State University argue that the inability of young men in China and India to form families could destabilize these countries and lead to conflict and war. They cite studies indicating that an increase in violent crime is often associated with single men.
Psychologist Martin Daly from Ontario University (Canada) states that the probability of murder is lower among married individuals compared to those who are divorced or single. American historian David Courtwright from the University of North Florida has noted a correlation between historical violence in the U.S. and a high number of single young men.
Demographer Christophe Z. Guilmoto at the French Institute for Research and Development states: “There is no definitive evidence to support this prediction. However, it may encourage international migration from China and India. Single individuals are more likely to migrate than family men. Thus, global peace is at risk…”
Both China and India are aware of the dangers posed by gender imbalance. China has set a goal to normalize the gender ratio by 2010 by prohibiting early sex determination and selective abortions. In India, since 1990, there has also been a ban on determining the sex of the fetus, although the use of ultrasounds and abortions is still regarded as a beneficial advancement.
Prof. Nguyen Khang, Health & Life
