An international team of climate researchers has warned that the time to protect the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) – the largest ice sheet in the world – from the impacts of global warming is running out.
Icebergs on Collins Glacier, Antarctica, February 1, 2018. (Photo credit: AFP/TTXVN)
In a study published on August 10, the research team, which includes scientists from the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra, conducted an analysis of sea level rise scenarios in the event of EAIS melting. According to the scientists’ estimates, if global temperatures increase by less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, the melting of the EAIS could lead to a sea level rise of less than 0.5 meters by the year 2500. However, if climate goals are not met and global temperatures continue to rise, the team warns that sea levels could rise by 5 meters due to ice melt from the EAIS in the same timeframe.
According to researcher Nerilie Abram from ANU, the EAIS is ten times larger than the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and contains enough water to raise global sea levels by 52 meters. If temperatures exceed 2 degrees Celsius after 2100 due to greenhouse gas emissions, the East Antarctic region alone could contribute to a sea level rise of approximately 1 to 3 meters by 2300 and about 2 to 5 meters by 2500.
In light of this threat, Ms. Abram believes that the opportunity to protect the world’s largest ice sheet from the effects of climate change is gradually closing, and a key lesson from the past is that the EAIS is highly sensitive to global warming even with moderate temperature increases.
The researchers examined how the EAIS responded to previous warm periods on Earth and analyzed forecasts based on existing studies to determine the impacts of different levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the future on the EAIS in the years 2100, 2300, and 2500. The research team emphasized that the worst impacts of global warming on the world’s largest ice sheet could be avoided if countries around the world successfully implement the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
