A recent study examining climate data over thousands of years suggests that the next El Niño phenomenon could be predicted up to two years in advance. This allows for better preparation for natural disasters such as droughts and floods.
A storm cloud over the Pacific Ocean (Photo: Science Photo Library – NASA).
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate cycle characterized by the cooling (La Niña) and warming (El Niño) of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It is one of the strongest and most predictable weather patterns influencing global climate.
In the United States, both El Niño and La Niña affect storms in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. La Niña weakens storm activity in the eastern Pacific and strengthens it in the Atlantic, while El Niño has the opposite effect.
Emily Becker, a climate scientist at the University of Miami, USA, stated that predicting ENSO is extremely valuable for emergency planning and resource management. For example, if drought conditions are likely to occur in the coming years, state authorities can implement water conservation or reserve plans in advance. However, few studies have attempted to predict El Niño or La Niña more than a year in advance.
Utilizing various climate models, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been able to forecast ENSO events about six to twelve months ahead. However, recent research indicates that they may be able to predict these phenomena up to two years in advance, effectively doubling the previous forecast time frame.
The lead author of the study, Nathan Lenssen, a climate scientist at the Colorado School of Mines and a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the USA, mentioned that his team is discussing with international agencies whether or not to release these long-term ENSO forecasts.
