The plan for humans to land on the Moon as part of the Artemis III mission has been delayed, while China’s competing program is advancing rapidly without any significant failures or delays.
Will the next person to set foot on the Moon speak English or Mandarin? A total of 12 Americans walked on the lunar surface between 1969 and 1972. Currently, both the United States and China are preparing to send humans back there within this decade.
An image taken at the Beijing Aerospace Control Center (BACC) on June 2, 2024, shows Chang’e 6 landing on the dark side of the Moon. (Photo: THX/TTXVN).
However, the U.S. Moon program has been delayed, partly because the astronaut suits and lunar landing vehicles are not yet ready. Meanwhile, China is committed to sending astronauts to the Moon by 2030—and they have a tradition of meeting deadlines.
Just a few years ago, such a scenario seemed unlikely. But the realistic possibility now is that China could beat the U.S. in a space race. So, who will return there first, and does it really matter?
The Goals of Two Space Powers
The NASA Moon program is called Artemis. The U.S. has partnered with international and commercial partners to share costs. NASA has outlined a plan to return Americans to the Moon through three missions.
In November 2022, NASA launched the Orion spacecraft, which flew around the Moon without carrying any crew. This was Artemis I.
Artemis II, scheduled for late 2025, will be similar to Artemis I, but this time the Orion will carry four astronauts. They will not land; that mission will be reserved for Artemis III. In the third mission, NASA plans to send the first man and the first woman to walk on the Moon. Although their identities have not yet been announced, one of them will be the first person of color to set foot on the Moon.
Artemis III is expected to launch in 2026, but a review in December 2023 suggested one of three scenarios where it would not launch until February 2028.
The Artemis III astronauts will use SpaceX’s Starship to land on the Moon. (Graphics: NASA).
Meanwhile, China’s space program appears to be progressing rapidly, with no significant failures or delays. In April of this year, Chinese space program officials announced that the country is on track to send astronauts to the Moon by 2030.
This is an extraordinary trajectory for a country that only sent its first astronaut into space in 2003. China has operated space stations since 2011 and has achieved significant milestones through its Chang’e lunar exploration program.
These robotic missions have returned samples from the surface, including from the “dark side” of the Moon. They have tested technologies that could be crucial for human landings. The next mission will land at the Moon’s south pole, an area drawing significant attention due to the presence of ice in its craters.
Water can be used to sustain life at a lunar base and can be extracted to provide hydrogen for rocket fuel. Producing rocket fuel on the Moon would be cheaper than transporting it from Earth and would support missions for further space exploration. For these reasons, Artemis III is set to land at the south pole, which is also the area expected to host permanent bases established by the U.S. and China.
On September 28, 2024, China unveiled its lunar astronaut suit for lunar walkers, also known as “selenauts.” This suit is designed to protect the wearer from extreme temperature changes and unfiltered solar radiation. It is lightweight and flexible.
Is China Ahead?
But does this signal that China has surpassed the U.S. in some aspect of the race to the Moon? The company producing the Artemis Moon suits, Axiom Space, is currently revising some details of the design reference that NASA provided them.
The lander that will take American astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface has also been delayed. In 2021, Elon Musk’s SpaceX was awarded the contract to build this vehicle. It is based on SpaceX’s Starship, which includes a 50-meter spacecraft launched on the most powerful rocket ever built.
Starship cannot fly directly to the Moon. First, it must refuel in Earth orbit (using other Starship vehicles that act as “fuel ships.”) SpaceX needs to demonstrate refueling capabilities and conduct uncrewed lunar landing tests before Artemis III can proceed.
Additionally, during the Artemis I mission, the heat shield of Orion was significantly damaged as the spacecraft re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere at high temperatures. NASA engineers have been working to find a solution before the Artemis II mission.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket carrying the Odysseus spacecraft launched from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on February 15, 2024. (Photo: AFP/TTXVN).
Some critics argue that Artemis is too complex, alluding to the intricate methods by which astronauts and the lunar lander are placed into lunar orbit, the large number of independently operating commercial partners, and the multiple Starship launches required. It takes between 4 to 15 Starship flights to complete the refueling process for Artemis III.
Former NASA Administrator Michael Griffin has advocated for a simpler strategy, essentially mirroring how China expects to conduct its lunar landing. His vision is for NASA to rely on traditional commercial partners like Boeing, rather than “new faces” like SpaceX.
However, simpler does not necessarily mean better or cheaper. The Apollo program was simpler but cost nearly three times more than Artemis. SpaceX has been more successful and cost-effective than Boeing in transporting crew to the International Space Station.
