In 2021, the Arctic region witnessed 7,278 lightning strikes, double the total recorded over the past nine years combined. This rare phenomenon is believed to be linked to climate change.
The Arctic atmosphere typically lacks the convective heat necessary to generate lightning, so the discovery of increased lightning activity in this region has raised concerns among scientists like Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist and lightning application manager at Vaisala. He stated: “Over the past decade, the overall number of lightning strikes in the northern part of the Arctic Circle has remained fairly stable. However, at the highest latitudes on the planet, lightning has increased significantly.”
With temperatures in the Arctic rising at three times the global average, monitoring lightning in the region has become an important indicator of the climate crisis.
Three essential factors for storm formation are humidity, instability, and lift. The disappearance of sea ice means that water can evaporate more vigorously, adding moisture to the atmosphere. Higher temperatures and atmospheric instability create perfect conditions for lightning. Therefore, monitoring changing lightning trends in the Arctic can reveal much about how the atmosphere is changing in response to climate variability.
Vagasky noted: “Changes in the Arctic can mean changes in weather at home. Weather issues are local, but what happens in your area depends on how the atmosphere is behaving elsewhere around the world. Changes in weather conditions in the Arctic can trigger more severe cold snaps, more heatwaves, or extreme changes in rainfall in Europe.”
Climate change may increase the likelihood of wildfires caused by lightning. (Illustrative image).
Last summer, horrific wildfires ravaged Europe and North America, at least in part due to lightning strikes. Typically, less than 15% of wildfires each year are caused by lightning, but these fires tend to be larger than those caused by humans. Identifying favorable conditions for lightning-induced wildfires is crucial for rapid responses to such fires.
The risk of lightning strikes in the Arctic remains low, but the increasing probability of lightning could threaten communities that have not had to deal with lightning frequently in the past. People in flat terrains or over oceans are more susceptible to lightning strikes, and lightning poses a risk of damaging electrical systems and other infrastructure.
Vagasky stated: “Climate change may increase the likelihood of wildfires caused by lightning. Scientists cannot link lightning strikes from a specific day to changes in our climate, but monitoring lightning trends in the Arctic is very important and needs to be studied now and in the future.”
According to the latest report from AMAP, within less than 50 years, from 1971 to 2019, the average annual temperature in the Arctic has risen by 3.1 degrees Celsius compared to a global temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius. The authors of the report noted that this increase is higher than previous assessments. The 2019 report indicated that the average annual temperature increase in the Arctic was more than twice the global average temperature rise.
Researchers warn that if global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, the risk of Arctic ice disappearing completely during the summer before freezing again in winter is ten times higher than if temperatures increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius, as targeted in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. The report suggests that an Arctic with virtually no sea ice in September could occur before 2050. September is typically the month with the least sea ice in the Arctic.
The report forecasts that by the end of this century, average temperatures in the Arctic could rise by between 3.3 to 10 degrees Celsius, exceeding average temperatures during the 1985-2014 period, with the final temperature increase depending on future greenhouse gas emissions.
