The Formation and Activity of the World’s Strongest Storms are Changing To adapt to increasingly destructive storms, nations are racing to understand and implement timely solutions amid the unpredictable impacts of climate change.
Driven by heat from the ocean, storms are often described as “nature’s steam engines.” As they sweep across the oceans, they transform that heat into a devastating force that flattens islands, submerges coastal cities, and leaves communities struggling to recover for months.
Hurricane Beryl is the first Category 5 storm to form in June, marking the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. (Photo: NASA).
While ocean temperatures are breaking every record, these “engines” are responding accordingly—moving erratically across the oceans, slowing down, and becoming more unpredictable and dangerous.
Researchers are racing to understand precisely what has shaped storms into their current unpredictable behavior, hoping humanity can adapt to extreme weather phenomena amid the harsh impacts of climate change.
Longer Hurricane Seasons
Hurricane Milton makes landfall in Fort Myers, Florida on October 9. (Photo: AFP/Getty Images).
Hurricanes in the Atlantic typically form in a seasonal cycle. Generally, very few or no storms form in the winter, and the number of storms typically peaks in September.
James Kossin, a retired climate and atmospheric scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), states that the hurricane season is starting earlier now, and the strong storms correspond with climate change warnings issued by experts.
“Storms simply respond to the environment in which they form. Therefore, if humans make the environment in June resemble that of August or September, storms will act as if it is August or September. They do not have a fixed schedule,” Kossin explains.
The unusual warm sea surface temperatures we are witnessing today are a result of climate change. Additionally, other factors, such as the current transition from El Niño to La Niña, tend to enhance storm activity.
Kristen Corbosiero, an associate professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany in New York, notes: “In a warming climate, the ocean will reach the necessary warm temperatures to promote storm formation earlier in the year. Thus, we will certainly see hurricane seasons starting earlier and lasting longer in the future.”
While the 2024 hurricane season began with the superstorm Beryl, which caused devastating destruction and aligned with climate scientists’ predictions, it is still too early to observe consistent changes in the hurricane season. Suzana Camargo, a professor of ocean and climate physics at Columbia University, remarks: “That is not something that is clearly evident in the data.”
Wind Shear – The “Killer” Factor of Storms
Strong winds and dark clouds from Hurricane Milton cover the sky over Progreso, Mexico, on October 7, 2024. (Photo: REUTERS/TTXVN).
Hugh Willoughby, a professor of Earth and Environment at Florida International University, states that one of the strongest recent storms in the Atlantic formed under conditions that should have inhibited it.
In September 2023, during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified to a Category 5 storm. At that time, El Niño was occurring, which usually has a suppressing effect on storms in the Atlantic due to greater wind shear and a more stable atmosphere.
“Wind shear is considered a killer factor for hurricanes. Vertical wind shear refers to the change in wind speed and direction at different altitudes—the high-altitude wind shear disrupts the structure of storms. Imagine a turbine engine and wind shear breaking some of its blades,” Willoughby explains.
Therefore, the formation of a Category 5 storm like Lee, despite significant wind shear, is “surprising.” Willoughby notes that the unusual ocean temperatures in September 2023 may have overridden the effects of wind shear, although it is unclear why.
Willoughby explains that most storms that form in the Atlantic do not reach their maximum intensity. Within the relatively narrow confines of the Atlantic basin, a storm often makes landfall before reaching peak intensity or encounters significant wind shear, which helps dissipate it.
“But when everything goes smoothly, storms can rapidly intensify and reach maximum strength, determined by sea surface temperature,” Willoughby adds.
Increased Intensity
According to climate scientist Kossin, there is substantial evidence that storm intensity is increasing as ocean temperatures rise.
The peak intensity of hurricanes is also rising due to climate change. In a 2020 study, Kossin found that hurricane intensity increased by about 6% per decade from 1979 to 2017. Hurricanes now have the capability to reach speeds of 180 km/h, classified as major hurricanes, which is 25% higher than 40 years ago.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), overall, the proportion of tropical storms reaching Category 3 or higher is likely to increase.
“Sea surface temperature determines the maximum intensity that a hurricane can achieve,” Willoughby states.
In May 2024, a BBC analysis found that ocean temperatures worldwide broke daily records throughout the previous year.
Slower Movement, More Rain
Fishing boats destroyed by Hurricane Beryl in Barbados on July 1, 2024. (Photo: CNN/TTXVN).
While wind speeds in a storm may increase, the movement of storms along their paths over the ocean and land is slowing down.
In a 2018 study, Kossin found that storms near the United States have slowed by about 17% since the early 20th century. Tropical storms in the Northwest Pacific have also slowed by up to 20%. Experts suggest that this is due to climate change unevenly warming the globe—the Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world. Consequently, the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the tropics is narrowing. Kossin explains: “It is that temperature gradient that drives the wind. The greater the gradient, the stronger the wind.”
As a storm moves more slowly, it has more time to produce rain in a specific location.
“What really causes more rain is when a storm slows down. When a storm moves slowly or stalls, many areas that the storm passes over will be inundated for several days,” Kossin notes.
The damage caused by wind also increases over time—the longer the wind blows against infrastructure, the more likely it is to be devastated.
Additionally, warmer air can hold more moisture—about 7% for every 1°C, meaning storms can become wetter.
As climate change raises temperatures, humidity will increase, resulting in significant differences. However, Kossin states that this effect is minor compared to the impact of a slowing storm.
For this reason, Kossin regards slow-moving storms as the most dangerous factor among all the ways climate change is altering hurricanes.
“That is truly a major issue,” he comments.
Changing Paths
In a 2014 paper, Kossin and colleagues found that in the Northern Hemisphere, storms have shifted northward by 53 km per decade. In the Southern Hemisphere, they have shifted southward by 62 km per decade. Overall, storms are moving approximately 1 degree of latitude away from the tropics every decade.
This could expose communities in areas previously unaccustomed to hurricanes to extreme storms. Kossin also points to the shifting trajectory of tropical storms in the Western Pacific. He observes that the risk of storms around the Philippines is slightly decreasing, while it is increasing to the north near Japan.
“The Philippines constantly suffers from storms. Therefore, they have somewhat adapted to it. Japan also experiences storms, but not as frequently. Now, they will begin to see stronger storms making landfall than before. The impacts they face are significantly concerning,” he states.
Rising sea levels due to climate change could cause more damage. (Photo: Getty Images).
Moreover, there are many other factors that are making current storms more extreme and posing greater risks.
“Sea level rise is already occurring. Storms are becoming more dangerous as they move ashore, so we must always be vigilant about that,” said Mr. Kossin.
Research shows that storm surges in the Caribbean, Mexico, and the United States have increased by 80% since 1979. Globally, storm surges are rising by approximately 3% each decade.
However, technology can help save lives in communities where storms make landfall, and long-term changes can also mitigate loss of life and property.
For communities situated in the path of storms, implementing widespread adaptive measures can help preserve homes and infrastructure. Meanwhile, reliable early warning systems can provide a lifesaving head start to ensure the safety of residents. Countries also need to adopt natural solutions to strengthen island and coastal areas, from planting vegetation that stabilizes slopes to restoring lost oyster reefs.
“Adaptation is crucial and could ultimately become the most important thing. Because we cannot suddenly ‘put out’ climate change and revert everything to the way it was. There is inertia in the system that we cannot truly overcome. Therefore, adaptation will be a key solution,” Mr. Kossin stated.
