After entering the South China Sea yesterday afternoon (October 24), Typhoon Trami is gradually intensifying. The most likely scenario currently is that the typhoon will approach the waters of Central Vietnam and then change direction back out to sea. The Central Central region may experience widespread heavy rainfall starting tomorrow (October 26).
As of 4 a.m. today (October 25), the eye of the typhoon was located over the eastern waters of the North South China Sea. The strongest winds near the eye of the typhoon are at levels 9-10 (75-102 km/h), with gusts reaching level 12. Over the past hours, the typhoon has been moving slowly westward at about 10 km per hour.
The trajectory of Typhoon Trami can be divided into two phases. The first phase, on October 25-26, shows the typhoon moving steadily in a west-northwest and westward direction, progressing towards the Paracel Islands and continuing to strengthen.
By 4 a.m. on October 27, the eye of the typhoon is expected to be over the northern part of the Paracel Islands, with maximum wind speeds near the eye reaching levels 11-12, and gusts at level 14. This is also projected to be the period when the typhoon is at its strongest.
Forecasts indicate that as the typhoon approaches the Paracel Islands, the interaction with cold air and the influence of another storm offshore from the Philippines will make the typhoon’s path extremely complex and unpredictable.
Latest assessment of Typhoon Trami’s trajectory. (Source: National Center for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting).
The most probable scenario is that when nearing the Central Central region (from Quang Binh to Quang Ngai), the typhoon will continuously shift its direction to the west-southwest, then southeast, and finally turn east, retreating back out to sea while gradually weakening. However, the possibility of the typhoon making landfall in the central provinces still remains.
The National Center for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting predicts that from October 26-28, the Central Central region may experience a significant widespread rainfall event. The intensity and extent of the rainfall will depend on the developments of Typhoon Trami.
Due to the effects of the typhoon and cold air, the weather over sea regions today is very severe. This morning, the eastern waters of the North South China Sea experienced strong winds at level 9, with gusts at level 11. The Ly Son Island station (Quang Ngai) recorded winds at level 6, gusting to level 7.
Forecast for the day and night of October 25 indicates that the eastern waters of the North and Central South China Sea will face storms, while the western waters of the North South China Sea and the Southern South China Sea (including the waters around the Spratly Islands) may experience scattered showers and thunderstorms. Tornadoes and strong gusts of level 7-8 may occur during storms.
The meteorological agency warns that on October 26, during the day and night, the North South China Sea (including the waters around the Paracel Islands) will have strong winds at levels 9-10, with levels 11-12 near the typhoon’s eye, and gusts up to level 15; wave heights will be 6-8 meters, and 8-10 meters near the eye of the typhoon, with extremely rough seas.
The northern waters of the Central South China Sea will experience winds at levels 7-8, with gusts at levels 9-10, leading to very rough seas and wave heights from 5-7 meters.
In the Gulf of Tonkin, southern waters of the Central South China Sea, and the Southern South China Sea (including the waters around the Spratly Islands) will have strong winds at level 6, occasionally reaching level 7, with gusts at levels 8-9; seas will be rough with wave heights from 3-6 meters.
The waters from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai (including the waters around Ly Son Island) will experience strong winds at levels 6-7, later increasing to levels 8-9, with gusts at level 11; seas will be extremely rough with wave heights from 5-7 meters.
On land, today, the weather across the country is sunny with little rain, while the northern region will be chilly at night and in the morning with temperatures dropping to 18-21 degrees Celsius, and in mountainous areas, 15-17 degrees Celsius. The highest temperatures may reach 29-32 degrees Celsius.
Typhoon Trami formed from a tropical depression off the east coast of the Philippines, strengthening into a typhoon on October 22, and entered the South China Sea from the afternoon of October 24. This is assessed as a typhoon with an unusual movement direction, the most unpredictable since the beginning of the season. Residents are advised to continuously update the latest forecast news.
