IT 2005: The Most Divine and “Insane” Prophecies

Last June, the news that Apple announced it would choose to use Intel’s new generation of chips sent shockwaves throughout the technology industry. However, Apple’s decision to end its 11-year collaboration with IBM was not the only surprise; it had been anticipated for some time.

In fact, this event was first predicted back in early 2003. At that time, expert John Dvorak forecasted that Apple would switch to using Intel chips within 18 months.

Such prophetic predictions are not unprecedented in the history of the technology industry. Previously, there were forecasts about the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the court ruling that led to Napster’s shutdown. Let’s take a look back at some of the most remarkable predictions from 2005.

This prediction was made in January by technology expert Robert Cringley. He suggested that the cost of installing a hotspot was not substantial and users would not be willing to pay much to use Wi-Fi. However, when it became a free application, it was enthusiastically embraced and gained popularity.

Other predictions: Cringley suggested that in 2005, Linux desktop would achieve some advances (too vague to score), RIAA would continue to sue users of file-sharing networks (Correct), and Microsoft’s entry into the antivirus and anti-spyware software/services market would be a disaster for consumers (this has yet to be confirmed).

Apple switches to Intel chips – a remarkable prediction by technology expert John Dvorak

2. Google might acquire AOL

As early as the end of the previous year, in his 2005 Forecast list, expert Rob Enderle suggested that Google’s merger roadmap this year could include AOL and Novell, aiming to bolster its fight against Microsoft. On December 20, Google indeed announced it had agreed to pay $1 billion for a 5% stake in AOL.

Other predictions: LCD screens will significantly decrease in price (correct).

However, alongside these, there were also predictions that made people laugh out loud. Here are some of those ‘quack’ assessments.

1. 2005 will be the year of the “Penguin”

When Wal-Mart introduced a notebook running Linux for under $500, open-source fans predicted that the Penguin would… take flight. Linux expert Michael Robertson also wrote in “2005 Forecast” that by 2005, you would be able to buy a Linux desktop or laptop in any store in the U.S.

In reality, as of today, Wal-Mart has lost patience and no longer sells this notebook model. The item is now listed on the company’s website as “Out of stock.”

2. Semiconductor slump

IDC predicted that the semiconductor industry would slump in 2005, but in reality, global revenue for the industry rose by 7%.

IDC experts predicted that global revenue for the semiconductor industry would drop by up to 2% in 2005. However, according to Gartner’s statistics, global chip revenue actually increased by 7%, reaching $235 billion last year. And this was just the preliminary data.

1. Wireless will continue to replace landlines.

This statement from Internet phone expert Jeff Pulver targets an obvious truth. With the current growth rate, wireless technology is indeed gradually “squeezing out” landline telecommunications.

Other predictions: Pulver also suggested that 2005 would be the year of VoIP (correct) and that VoIP companies would go public this year (everyone hopes so, but that has yet to happen).

2. Blogs will thrive and diversify

A year ago, online media expert John Battelle predicted that by the end of 2005, the world would recognize blogging as “an essential part of life.” This is something any blogger could say. He also mentioned that advertising would flow heavily into blogs (Another accurate prediction – but obvious).

Destiny