Hurricane Milton formed and intensified to a Category 5 storm in just one day. This rapid escalation may be part of a complex hurricane trend driven by climate change.

“Milton has the potential to become one of the most devastating hurricanes ever recorded in West-Central Florida,” NBC News reported, citing forecasters.

Hurricane Milton intensifies at an incredible speed.

“Hurricane Milton could be a ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ storm,” CNN reported regarding the storm’s path.

According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, the term “rapid intensification” describes a sustained wind speed increase of at least 56 km/h over a 24-hour period.

Hurricane Milton exceeded that minimum, introducing a new concept called “extreme rapid intensification.” The storm’s maximum sustained winds increased by an astonishing 145 km/h in about 25 hours, according to the nonprofit research group Climate Central.

“It’s Horrifying!”

According to The New York Times, meteorologists were glued to their computers on the morning of October 7, analyzing virtual data provided by storm chasers from the Air Force Reserve repeatedly. Each time, they observed the wind speed in Milton’s eye escalating, indicating the storm was growing more intense by the minute.

“This is an incredible, unbelievable, astounding storm,” John Morales, a hurricane expert from NBC 6 South Florida, said, choking back emotion. “I’m sorry. It’s horrifying!”

Meteorologist John Morales emotional while reporting on Hurricane Milton.

Global warming is making hurricanes more dangerous by providing essential ingredients for their intensification, such as warm sea surface temperatures and high humidity in the atmosphere.

Climate Central posted on X on October 7: “Warming oceans due to human-caused climate change are fueling stronger tropical storms.”

When a hurricane forms, warm water and favorable atmospheric conditions act as additional energy sources, helping the storm to accelerate and strengthen along its path.

Moreover, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, increasing the likelihood of storms delivering heavy rainfall inland. Consequently, climate-driven hurricanes can lead to more severe flooding and devastating impacts.

Milton, expected to make landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast on the evening of October 9, has been moving through unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Most ocean areas have temperatures above 26 degrees Celsius, with some parts of the Gulf being up to 4 degrees higher than normal, according to data from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The elevated temperatures in the Gulf also contributed to Hurricane Helene’s intensification before it made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region less than two weeks ago.

Difficult to Forecast

A 2023 study published in Scientific Reports found that Atlantic tropical storms are likely to undergo rapid intensification about 29% more frequently from 2001 to 2020 compared to the period from 1971 to 1990.

Scientists have documented numerous recent examples of this rapid intensification trend, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Hurricane Laura in 2020, Hurricane Ida in 2021, and Hurricane Idalia last year. In 2019, Hurricane Dorian’s maximum wind speed jumped from 240 km/h to 300 km/h in just 9 hours. Hurricane Ian also experienced two rapid intensification episodes before making landfall in Florida.

Although this process has been thoroughly documented, rapid intensification remains challenging to predict. Scientists understand the necessary components to trigger this phenomenon, but accurately forecasting when and how it will occur — and the precise catalysts involved — remains difficult.

Residents fill sandbags on Fort Myers Beach, Florida, in preparation for Hurricane Milton.

Hurricane Milton is expected to weaken slightly before landfall, but its impact will be severe. A storm surge warning is in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, where life-threatening surges of up to 3.7 meters are forecasted. Up to 15 million people have been warned of potential flooding statewide.

The storm warnings have prompted a series of closures. Tampa Bay International Airport will suspend flights at 9 AM local time. Schools in over 20 counties have been scheduled to close on October 8. The University of Florida and several other colleges have canceled classes this week.

Local officials have issued widespread mandatory evacuation orders for many communities in Florida, including parts of Lee, Hillsborough, and Sarasota counties.

Florida is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, and Governor Ron DeSantis pledged on October 7 to work around the clock to clear debris before Milton arrives. Governor DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 51 counties ahead of Hurricane Milton’s landfall.