A recent study published at the end of July 2024 by researchers from the University of Pennsylvania, Rowan University in the United States, and Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore, reveals that tropical storms in Southeast Asia are increasingly forming closer to the coast, intensifying more rapidly, and lingering longer on land.
These changes, driven by climate change, increase the risk for tens of millions of people in coastal regions, with cities like Hải Phòng (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand) facing unprecedented threats from longer-lasting and more intense storms.
Super Typhoon Yagi causes significant damage in Vietnam.
Tropical storms are powerful, rotating storms that form over warm ocean waters and are characterized by strong winds and heavy rainfall. These storms typically develop in tropical regions near the equator, where warm waters and stable temperatures provide the necessary heat and moisture for their development and intensification.
Based on the analysis of over 64,000 historical and future storm models from the 19th century to the end of the 21st century, the study published in the journal Nature is Climate and Atmospheric Science highlights significant changes in the behavior of tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia, such as increased formation near the coast and slower movement over land, which could pose new risks for the region.
The study found that climate change is altering the paths of tropical storms in Southeast Asia. This is the first study to utilize data from multiple climate models to examine storms from the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries.
Humans need to address the consequences of their actions
The research team explains that around the world, tropical storms are affected by warming ocean waters, and the warmer the seas, the more energy these storms can draw from them. The phenomenon of warming seas is significantly attributed to climate change caused by human activity.
The lead author, Associate Professor Andra Garner from the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Rowan University, stated: “Southeast Asia has densely populated coastlines, currently home to over 70% of the global population that will face the impacts of rising sea levels in the future. When you look at those densely populated coastlines and consider this area is affected by tropical storms, there is a real risk, especially as these storms become more destructive and the population continues to grow.”
The co-author of the study, Professor Benjamin Horton, Director of the Singapore Earth Observatory at NTU, remarked: “Tropical storms have caused torrential rain and severe flooding across Southeast Asia, prompting mass evacuations, destroying infrastructure, and impacting the lives and livelihoods of thousands. Our research shows that as storms move over warmer oceans due to climate change, they will carry more moisture and heat. This means stronger winds, heavier rainfall, and more flooding when storms make landfall.”
Storms in Southeast Asia are expected to become more intense due to climate change.
Unlike traditional studies on historical weather patterns and storms, the researchers designed computer simulations to adjust various factors, such as forecasts of human-caused emissions and their impacts on global warming.
The simulations reveal changes in where cyclones form, intensify, slow down, and ultimately dissipate, providing important insights into the effects of global warming on these storms.
Co-author of the study, Dr. Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Senior Research Fellow at the Singapore Earth Observatory at NTU, shared: “By examining storms over an extended period, our study provides insights that can help governments prepare for future storms and guide community development planning. Utilizing nine global climate models, this research significantly reduces uncertainty in predicting changes in tropical storms, which has been a challenge in previous studies that relied on a single model.”
Typhoon Yagi makes landfall in southern China.
Associate Professor Garner added: “There are two key takeaways: First, we should act to reduce emissions so we can mitigate the impacts of future storms. Second, we need to take action now to protect those coastlines for the future, which are likely to experience some of the worst impacts of tropical storms regardless of future emission levels.”
The research team will conduct further studies to better understand the severe weather conditions in the region and identify additional ways they may impact vulnerable populations.
