This is the assessment of Elon Musk, the founder and CEO of SpaceX, regarding the first orbital test flight conducted by the Starship spacecraft.
SpaceX spacecraft during a groundbreaking refueling test on January 23 (Photo: SpaceX).
“Starship has about a 50% chance of successfully launching into orbit,” Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, stated at the Morgan Stanley conference on March 7. “I’m not saying it’s a sure thing, but I can guarantee it will be incredibly exciting.”
Starship is SpaceX’s developing project aimed at transporting humans and cargo to the Moon, followed by Mars, along with a series of other ambitious space missions.
This massive super-heavy launch vehicle is composed of the upper stage of the Super Heavy rocket and the Starship spacecraft. It is expected to be the most powerful rocket ever launched into space by humanity, with a launch thrust approximately 2.5 times greater than that of NASA’s iconic Saturn V rocket.
Starship spacecraft. (Photo: SpaceX).
The Starship is also designed for complete and rapid reusability. This is seen by Elon Musk as a crucial breakthrough necessary to make “colonizing Mars” and other ambitious exploration plans feasible.
Although the Starship is currently believed to be powerful enough to launch from the Moon and Mars, it still requires the dedicated Super Heavy rocket to escape Earth’s gravitational pull.
SpaceX’s first orbital test flight with Starship is expected to launch in March, following successful testing of all 33 Raptor 2 engines and environmental adjustments at Starbase, the planned launch site, as required by the Federal Aviation Administration.
Ship-24 Starship prototype igniting one of the six Raptor engines during a short test on December 15, 2022 (Photo: SpaceX).
It’s not surprising that Musk is looking to temper public expectations ahead of the highly anticipated launch of the Starship spacecraft. History has shown that rockets often fail during their initial flights, achieving stability only after several to dozens of launches.
According to Space, SpaceX is currently manufacturing the Starship spacecraft in South Texas, which they refer to as Starbase, and plans to begin mass launches of these spacecraft in the coming months.
