The whole world is immersed in the vibrant atmosphere of the Euro 2024 football festival taking place in Germany. However, alongside the thrilling matches and beautiful goals, the issue of football betting has become a hot topic.
With the desire to “change their fortunes”, a group of people has staked their assets on football matches, but the results have not been “as expected.” Many believe that the more they bet, the more they lose. Could it be that the “bookmakers” are cheating in these betting scenarios, causing you to suffer deeper losses?
Let’s explore a few scientific studies that prove when you lose, you are more likely to lose again. This can help you avoid such pointless betting activities.
1. Betting is a unique “addiction”
Everyone knows that drugs and ecstasy are dangerous addictive substances. Yet, few realize that football betting can also be addictive, with effects comparable to those of heroin.
Many scientific studies have shown that football betting affects the human nervous system similarly to stimulants or addictive substances. Winning a bet can create a high similar to being on drugs, leaving the player exhilarated and enthralled for a long time.
Conversely, when losing a bet, players often feel dejected, depressed, and anxious, resembling a drug addict who cannot fulfill their cravings. There have even been numerous cases of suicide attributed to losses in football betting.
Losing in football betting can even lead someone to death.
The danger of football betting lies in its direct connection with passion. Most football bettors are avid fans of the sport. According to various studies, this passion makes addiction to football betting harder to shake compared to other forms of gambling. Therefore, the best way is to steer clear of this dangerous form of betting.
2. You never win in football betting
One common question among bettors is “Can I make money from football betting?” According to scientists, the answer is almost always “No.”
Regardless of the betting format…
…the outcome will always be… empty pockets.
The reason for this reality is the 11-10 betting method commonly used by bookmakers. According to this method, to win 10 units, a player must wager 11 units.
With this approach, a player might win once or twice and think they can profit from betting. However, over the long term, to break even, they need to win at least 11 out of 21 bets (equivalent to 52.38%).
In every betting situation, the bookmaker always takes at least 1 unit “commission” from the 11 units wagered by the player. Therefore, in the long run, the bookmakers are always the winners.
In the end, only the bookmakers are getting “richer”.
3. The more you know about football, the higher your losing rate
Typically, when you have a solid understanding of a particular field, success in that area comes more easily. However, the opposite occurs with football betting. Simply put, the more knowledgeable someone is about football, the more likely they are to lose bets.
Science has proven – football betting is not for the knowledgeable fans.
This was demonstrated in a survey conducted by two Israeli professors, Dannon and Ronen Huberfeld. They selected three groups: Group I consisted of 53 professional bettors; Group II included 34 football fans with substantial sports knowledge but no gambling experience; Group III comprised 78 individuals who never gamble and have no sports or football knowledge. All participants were asked to bet on the results of the 2012-2013 UEFA Champions League round of 16 matches.
The results were surprising: The scientists expected those knowledgeable in football to have a higher success rate. In reality, the research groups found that their success rates were not better than those in the other two groups. Interestingly, the two most successful bettors, who accurately predicted 7 out of 16 matches, came from the group without any knowledge of the sport.
This does not mean that a lack of experience is an advantage. Many in Group III failed to accurately predict the outcome of any matches. “This result reveals a truth that knowledge is not an advantage in betting. The feeling of control encourages players to trust themselves, which is just an illusion,” Professor Dannon stated.
Conversely, “gambling favors the foolish”. Football betting may only be for those who know nothing about it.
Explaining this, the two experts stated that in football betting, knowledgeable players tend to believe their ability to accurately predict outcomes based on factors such as player capabilities, coach habits, weather conditions, and stadium capacity, thinking they can predict results better than the average person… but in reality, this creates an illusion, making them even more likely to lose bets.
4. Betting while losing leads to more losses
When losing bets, most players feel frustrated and want to continue betting to recover their losses. However, according to research by Juemin Xu and Nigel Harvey, betting while losing makes it even easier to lose.
The two experts observed and compiled statistics on chains of 6 consecutive wins/losses in 565,951 football and horse racing bets placed online. The initial winning rate for the first bet is usually 48%.
Like other forms of gambling, once a bet wins, the chances of winning consecutively…
For those on a losing streak, the winning percentage decreases with each subsequent bet, dropping to 47%, 45%, and even lower. In contrast, if the first bet wins, the winning rate increases continuously, potentially reaching up to 75% by the sixth bet.
…but if you lose, continuing to play will only dig you deeper into failure.
The two experts explain that when winning, players tend to think more carefully, thereby increasing their chances of winning. Meanwhile, those who are losing tend to take risks and gamble recklessly, making them more susceptible to failure.
