Information has become a new form of capital; the country, organization, or individual that generates and possesses more high-quality information will play a larger role in the future. After resolving issues related to science and technology, particularly regarding brain-computer interfaces and memory chips, humanity may achieve immortality. Many universities will close, and numerous jobs in the education sector will vanish…
“As a scholar, I have many concerns about the future, including war, famine, climate disasters, viruses, and economic downturns… However, I still hope the world will be a better place by 2040. In 2040, the global economy will be even larger, capable of addressing world poverty, which currently affects 1 billion people directly,” shared Professor Wang Wen from Renmin University of China in an article for the Valdai Club Youth Conference scheduled for March 2024 in Sochi, Russia.
Information as a New Capital
In recent years, information has emerged as a new form of capital. Among the 500 top companies in the world, an increasing number focus on information technology and digital technology. The “FAANG” tech companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) hold the largest shares, accounting for over 40% of the total market capitalization of the U.S. stock market.
Those with more data and information will be stronger and dominate the world. (Illustration: NEXT Conference).
The ability to collect and produce information will determine the methods of managing and distributing wealth over the next 20 years. If you look at internet celebrities, you will see that someone with 10 million followers has significantly more influence than someone with 10 million USD. Whether it’s a country, organization, or individual, the ability to generate high-quality information will play a larger role in the future.
Those who effectively use smart technology will have a better chance of securing a favorable social position. However, if disadvantaged groups can effectively utilize technology, they may turn their lives around. Many grassroots internet celebrities have completely transformed their fates in just a few years, or even months. Yet, on the other hand, new inequalities will emerge worldwide. Those with more data and information will be stronger and dominate the world. This presents a new uncertainty that humanity must confront.
Significant Increases in Living Standards and Longevity
Two hundred years ago, the average human lifespan was around 40 years. On average, those born after 2000 are expected to live to 80. In the next 20 years, barring a world war, pandemic, or climate disaster, human longevity is expected to increase significantly. With current medical technology, people may very well live to an average of 90 years or even surpass the age of 100 by the 2040s.
According to the vision of American tech billionaire Elon Musk, within the next 20 years, after addressing issues related to brain-computer interfaces and memory chips, humans may even achieve the potential for immortality. Humanity may also face the possibility of obtaining eternal digital lives. From these perspectives, in the next 20 years, human existence and life will usher in an unprecedented revolutionary change and a new era of civilization that surpasses industrial civilization.
Education Shaping the Future Economy
Education will witness an unprecedented model revolution in the future. The concept of universities and professors will become foreign. Traditionally, universities and professors have held a primary role in education due to their monopoly on knowledge and information. However, this educational structure will disintegrate.
In the next 20 years, many universities will close, and numerous jobs in the education sector will be lost. As information and knowledge become freely available and no longer monopolized, individuals will be able to create economic value in education by reorganizing knowledge and creating new insights. Furthermore, while the cost of producing conventional goods continues to decline, the cost of generating high-quality education and knowledge will rise. Education and entertainment will merge. People will seek better educational experiences just as they have pursued better food, more beautiful clothing, and larger homes in the past. A good video, a great novel, or a captivating song will generate higher economic growth.
| Professor Wang Wen also predicts that the digital revolution will both level many inequalities and create new ones; technological advancements will liberate the mind; more countries will provide free healthcare; the world will reduce reliance on natural resources; emerging economies will contribute to peace; demographic trends will impact the global economy, with populations in developed countries declining sharply; major powers will leverage climate discourse; individual roles in various fields will increase; and globalization will continue to expand… |
The Dominance of the Service Sector
Smart technology will undoubtedly reshape the job market. In the future, human involvement in agriculture, industry, or manufacturing will decrease. A significant number of jobs will be replaced by artificial intelligence (AI), including in education. People will become more engaged in the service sector, particularly in services aimed at enhancing life enjoyment.
Currently, in developed countries, the service sector accounts for over 80% of the total economy. The participation rate of developing countries in the service sector remains relatively low but will increase in the future. Another change in employment is that information skills will become essential for job opportunities. Proficient programming skills and data analysis skills will be crucial for young people to learn. At present, being fluent in foreign languages and knowing how to drive can help young people secure better employment. Similarly, in the future, data capability will assist young individuals in finding jobs more easily.
AI’s Significant Impact on Society and the Economy
Innovations in AI technology based on data algorithms have significantly improved the overall efficiency of social activities, but they also pose substantial technical risks that are unpredictable, such as “a double-edged sword” leading to food shortages, financial volatility, economic crises, military conflicts, and becoming a new variable reshaping the fundamental logic of social activities in the future. This will spur unprecedented debates and stalemates regarding the ethics of technology.
Smart technology expands the time and space of human activity but simultaneously introduces new risks, such as the gradual replacement of human labor, leading to the potential loss of control over the world and the reduction of human dominance. In this regard, I agree with Musk’s perspective. How we regulate the development of AI will become an extremely crucial issue in the next 20 years.
