The weather is becoming increasingly extreme due to multiple factors occurring simultaneously.
The Strongest El Niño in History Has Ended
According to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), after a year of pushing global temperatures to new records, the El Niño 2023 – 2024 has officially ended, and a contrasting weather pattern, La Niña, is expected to emerge in the latter months of 2024.
El Niño is characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. In contrast, La Niña is marked by unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and is associated with both flooding and drought.
“The average sea surface temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific measured in April 2024 fell below normal levels. This indicates that the transition to La Niña is underway. La Niña could develop between June and August (with a 49% probability) or between July and September (with a higher probability of 69%)” – the Climate Prediction Center’s report stated.
U.S. meteorological experts note that La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology supports this: Since 1910, the world has experienced 29 strong El Niño events and 20 La Niña events.
The strongest El Niño recorded in over a century occurred during the 1997 – 1998 event, which caused sea surface temperatures in the Pacific (the epicenter of this phenomenon) to warm by an unusual 2.5 degrees Celsius. In comparison, the El Niño 2023 – 2024, the strongest in history, led to a peak sea surface temperature increase of 2.1 degrees Celsius.
Climate Change Comes into Play
NPR reports that El Niño is characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, where a large amount of heat is released into the atmosphere. This is why years with El Niño often experience above-average temperatures. Alongside the warming caused by greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, 2023 has been ranked as the hottest year on record.
2024 is still predicted to be among the Top 5 hottest years on record. (Illustrative image).
Scientists believe this is a clear warning that the combination of climate change and El Niño could set the stage for even worse heatwaves, floods, and droughts in the future.
The disappearance of El Niño does not mean that 2024 will necessarily break the recent record streak of high temperatures, with the last eight years consecutively setting the hottest records.
“Even as the world shifts to La Niña, global temperatures are not expected to change significantly until the end of this year. 2024 is still predicted to be among the Top 5 hottest years on record“ – Tom DiLiberto, a climate scientist at NOAA, stated.
What Impacts Could La Niña 2024 Bring?
Meteorologists indicate that El Niño and La Niña patterns are natural fluctuations that can also affect global rainfall amounts. In the southwestern United States, years with El Niño tend to be wetter (due to increased rainfall), while La Niña years are often drier, exacerbating drought conditions.
The current shift to La Niña could make the Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 more severe. Ocean temperatures there have warmed, which may help fuel the development of storms.
In simpler terms, meteorologists explain that the onset of La Niña typically reduces wind shear in the atmosphere. Less wind shear allows storms to strengthen more easily.
In Vietnam, meteorological experts predict that the weather in late 2024 will be extremely severe due to the emergence of La Niña.
“We anticipate that the atmospheric conditions transitioning from El Niño to La Niña (from warm phase to cold phase), combined with climate change, will continue to exacerbate extreme weather events. Therefore, the latter half of 2024 will experience complex disaster patterns, including heatwaves, drought, and severe thunderstorms. This scenario is quite similar to the La Niña patterns observed in 2020,” said Mr. Hoàng Đức Cường, Deputy Director-General of the General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, to Thanhnien.
Mr. Hoàng Đức Cường further stated that from now until the end of the year, the South China Sea is expected to see about 11-13 typhoons, with 5-7 affecting land. In the first half of the rainy season, disasters are expected to focus on the Northern region, North Central region, and the Central Highlands. Specifically, in Central Vietnam, heavy rains, typhoons, and flooding are expected in the latter half of 2024.
